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The future of the automobile messaged by Tesla Cybertruck
« -: Ноември 26, 2019, 03:18:13 15:18 »
The perfect automobile
An automobile for personal use is a motorcar with capacity to carry passengers and their luggage or other cargo at the greatest possible distance providing the greatest possible comfort and entertainment at the lowest possible price - the said comprising it's purpose, all other aspects of the said vehicle being considered secondary.

For achieving the said purpose the automobile must provide passenger and cargo volume, efficiency by means of low air and rolling resistance and economical means of propulsion.

Air resistance to the automobile body has the greatest impact on it's use of energy while travelling. Thus, the most favorable aerodynamic shape must be employed which is the one of a wedge nosed LeMans prototype (a slug travelling backwards).
At the circumstance of a body travelling close to the earth's surface, the most favorable shape is not a raindrop, nor an inverse wing, or the one of a VW Beetle or a Porsche 911 - those are derived from blasting a cube of ice with hot air and only reflect where the greatest frontal resistance is without properly reflecting the greatest source of drag - behind the car.
So the least resistive to air body travelling near the earth's surface would more or less look like the Tesla Cybertruck.

Cab forward design. In an ICE automobiles cab forward design emerged in commercial vehicles in the 50's by placing the cabin over the engine compartment, thus allowing for bigger cargo volume with the same vehicle dimensions. In passenger automobiles, cab forward was possible after the engines of the race cars were moved to the back center position with the passenger compartment front part overlaying with the front tyres. This type of design is evolving in rear engine supercars from the 60's onwards culminating in prototype car Lamborghini Portofino in 1988 where Cab Forward was named exclusive design feature. Later this design approach was employed in Chrysler's LH platform vehicles New Yorker, Dodge Intrepid, Chrysler Concorde and 300m, Dodge Neon and others. All featuring bigger interior and cargo volume than their outer dimensions suggest. Main design feature is reducing the engine compartment, transverse engine and gearbox and wedge shaped front of the car with A-pillar reaching unusually forward.
The cab forward wedge shaped design has been employed in numerous cars, such as: Lancia Stratos HF Zero, Citroen Karin, DS and C6, Mazda Autozam, Toyota EX-7, Ford Taurus for China Market.
As a side note, it should be pointed out that every present day supercar can be converted to two row passenger car with big luggage volume while preserving it's general shape, design and layout car by removing the engine and gearbox and converting it to EV with battery under the floor.

Remembering the history of any new technology and the marketing theory and practice would leave us with the inevitable conclusion that the automobile will undergo it's own version of the history of marketed technology devices.
The best instance I can think of is Hi-Fi equipment. From the first home radios, through the first PA systems for cinema theaters (Western Electric) to the late 80's, Hi-Fi and PA sound systems were more or less high tech devices manufactured and sold by companies that had the technology advantage. The territory of Hi-Fi was reserved to the companies able to employ latest semiconductor devices in the latest schematics. Somewhere around 1990 a plateau in technology was reached, semiconductors became goods exchange worldwide available world element base. The schematics became well known to wider part of the population. Thus the technology barrier no longer applied and under certain conditions the market was open for infinite number of new players. The beginning of the 1990's was the period when many of the large players withdrew from the hi-end market and employed their R&D departments with newer technologies. This process lead to discontinuation of the model lines of Yamaha MX-1000 and Technics New Class-A reducing the model families of amplifiers and other Hi-Fi equipment to mid level models at most.

Presently, introduction of EV's makes increasingly obsolete the enormous metallurgical, technological (regarding the combustion process and fueling) and logistical effort associated with designing, manufacturing and incorporating an ICE in a passenger automobile.
Propulsion wise and efficiency wise the electric motor is already at peak design efficiency plateau. Invertor and controller technology is also almost fully evolved and matured. Improvement is possible only through new semiconductors and schematics that are already theoretically and even experimentally available. The only pending breakthrough is in battery and capacitor technology with increasing efforts being put in by numerous scientists and companies in that aspect. Even present technology is already sufficiently advanced and widely available. In Hi-Fi terms, EV's are in 1985. Thus we could presume that only about five years are left until the market will naturally open itself for infinite number of new players.
Further argument is that it already happened once in the automobile industry. Up until the end of the 40's of the 20th century major car manufacturers were supplying chassis and engines to coach building companies thus reducing the technology of the automobile to a common exchange good.

Based on all this we come to the Tesla Cybertruck
The Cybertruck has cab forward design, silhouette of a slung (Le Mans prototype, Lamborghnini, Lancia Stratos HF Zero and Citroen Karin), seats six, huge luggage space and huge range.
The Cybertruck though is much more than that:
- The flat body panels are made on bending machine and not by multimillion forges and simultaneously are immensely strong and stainless. Their mass serves for two purposes - for outer panels and for supporting construction rendering a lighter automobile.
Here the really substantial novelties and the actual revolution begins...
- The flat panels allow us to alter the appearance of the car by our own taste;
- The era of automobiles finished by coachbuilders begins;
- Musk knows that and wants the technology leader Tesla to supply propulsion modules and chassis;
- The cybertruck is a right angled room on wheels, it allows you to redesign it on the outside and to furnish it to your taste because it does not necessitate specific furniture as the conventional factory automobiles;
- It has huge space and allot of greenhouse glass, exactly as the theoretical ideal automobile... and as the design studies and prototypes mentioned above;
- It has allot of power and is very efficient because it's an EV. It allows any kind of refurnishing and altering of the outside design and still be faster and more efficient than an ICE automobile;
- Extreme minimalism. Important are the travel, atmosphere and the companions and not the transient design of the vehicle. Today even less than ten years old cars are morally obsolete by design and features. Not Tesla Cybertruck, it is eternal, design, fit, color and materials of the interior - we are free to choose and change everything;

Those are my thoughts on the Tesla Cybertruck and what it brings. I think on the topic why are manufacturers shy of giving us a pure automobile with ultimate characteristics by design. Why no one gives us the space and aerodynamics that are required for comfortable and efficient travel? Every time I had made a mind experiment on the topic for the ideal automobile I ended up with a Mercedes A-class first generation or a Lamborghini Aventador with two rows of seats or something inbetween.

The most important thing is that Elon Musk unties the hands of all the custom studios to start making cars and become coachbuilders. (through flat panels which do not require expensive tools) Logically, coachbuilders will buy propulsion and equipment from Tesla.
This is the official announcement of the end of the classic ossified and feudalised car makers.
By now, we knew this had to end, but we did not know where the change would come from and when. The change comes from Tesla and is happening now.

Even more considerations on the topic:

An electric car is a coupe with suspension, battery, controller and electric motors. Boxes and modules that do not require tuning. Everything is already a global element base. There will be DIY electric cars.

We will buy coupes and units and order furniture, dashboards, screens, seats, armchairs, sofas. we will choose the power supply, the power of the engines, the color of the upholstery and the type of seats.

Cars are no longer a high-tech product. At the same time, however, they cost as much as a house, the range is big, from a decent 40 m2 bungalow with dry construction to a monolithic three-storey building.

Buildings in accounting are amortized over 20-25 years, and can be used for 50-100 years or more. It is appropriate and already possible to buy a coupe that we like in design and size that meet our needs, choose the power and drive and furnish it to our liking. It is appropriate  such an investment of such scale to allow for use without loss.
There are two kinds of objects, consumables perishable with use - such are food and consumables and not consumable, such as land, buildings, computers, works of art, tools. Today's cars are consumables. They look like small houses on wheels, but with their use they become old and worn out and are eventually consumed to the utmost, their main units running out of technical resource.

However, the cars of the near future will not be like this. First of all, their main units have a form factor that makes them interchangeable modules with no special requirements for attachment or compatibility. The battery, electric motor, controller and gearbox are boxes with inputs and outputs that can be placed in many different ways in many different spaces.
Secondly, the bodywork materials of the new cars are aluminum, stainless steel and composites. These materials are resistant to weathering, they do not age themselves and, if constructed with sufficient strength, do not experience material fatigue as a result of normal use loads. Most importantly, modern automotive technology allows the construction of lightweight and durable enough structures that do not weaken over time and use.
Third, even today's second - generation Tesla battery technology, when used properly, retains 93% of its capacity after 600,000 km. 600,000 kilometers are 20 years at 30,000 km per year - more than most Bulgarians drive per year. The third generation of Tesla batteries will be launched in 2019, which will be healthier, lighter, cheaper and with more capacity.

Maintenance will be the replacement of suspension parts, which are already very cheap, and the replacement or repair of furniture. It is a little known fact that even today the good manufacturers offer spare seat upholstery or straight seats as a spare part.

The problem with using a car for such a long time is purely psychological. Some people will sell their cars after a while or replace them with different ones. Or they will only change their furniture. A separate question is also what the sales volumes will be. It is not certain that sales will fall. Initially, the market will need to be saturated with new, custom-built cars, and by the time it is saturated, the first ones will start to go out of use. It's harder to predict, I just mention it.
The observation I share with you is that the car is no longer high-tech and auto manufacturers will not be required to provide us with a unique ready-to-use product complete with all units, but only a coupe and propulsion.

What the perfect car should look like and what it should do in Bulgarian: http://penkiller.com/index.php/topic,2172.0.html

* * *

Obviously, all the prerequisites for the eternal car are already present and it could be produced as early as this year. From all this it follows that the automobile industry in its present form will disappear in 10-20 years.

From the behavior of most auto manufacturers who do not develop new platforms and strive to accumulate a maximum financial buffer, it seems that what I am telling you here has been known for at least 10 years. Most manufacturers use older, even over 20-year-old platforms (W210-220-221-222-Chrysler 300) and make as many models as possible, while stopping all platforms that cannot fit batteries, but do not replace present ones, or a new platform replaces several old ones. If you look around, many minivans about ten years old have large hollow volumes below the cabin, probably designed to hold batteries.

Classic auto manufacturers will continue to produce only chassis and passenger compartments. For now. The rest is already a global element base just like transistors, capacitors, chips and other electronics. Presently even this is uncertain with the introduction of the flat panel Cybertruck that is well within reach for any custom atelier or coachbuilder.

* * *

That is why in the near future we will order a car in the furniture shops. Which is still the only meaningful and justifiable difference between cars today. All the cars are already powerful enough and fast enough, and if desired by the designers and a suitably targeted group of clients, even small cars like Skoda Fabia and Nissan Kashquai drive extremely well.

* * *

These changes in technology and the market require tax changes. An electric vehicle is in zero emission class both in the year of its manufacture and 20 years later.
Tax reform is also needed in the taxation of classic ICEs and hybrids. The age of the car is not a factor. First, the engine and catalytic converter can be replaced. There are now programs to convert classic Aston Martin models to purely electric. The logic of today's age and emission class taxation system is no longer valid. It is actually initially invalid, but it is a compromise because when it was introduced we did not have today's information technology. We are actually taxing greenhouse gas and greenhouse gas emissions. However, these emissions are proportional to the vehicle's mileage. Today's technologies allow you to tax emissions directly. Cars should be taxed with a three-component tax, similar to the garbage tax (cleaning, collection / removal and disposal, with non-used and non-inhabited property paying only two fixed components - landfill and cleanliness) - fixed vehicle tax, tax proportional to the weight and tax proportional to the emissions actually emitted. Obviously the emissions tax has to be paid through the fuel and according to the emission class, something completely achievable even in 2018. Each car can have an emission certificate, the amount of fuel is measured exactly at the gas station and the tax is collected along with the payment of the fuel. The more economical cars earn, as well as the greener ones. At the same time, there will be no unfair and discriminating tax penalty for owning a powerful, low-driven car.

Second part is from here: http://penkiller.com/index.php/topic,2267.0.html

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